Group 1: PMI Overview - March PMI increased significantly by 1.7 to 50.8, marking a 12-month high, but still 1.1 lower than the same period in 2023[1] - The rise is attributed to the post-Spring Festival recovery, as February PMI was unusually low due to pre-holiday factors[1] - The average PMI for the first quarter stands at 49.7, which is 1.0 and 0.7 lower than historical averages for recent years[1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders index improved by 4.0 to 53.0, indicating a strong rebound, but the quarterly average remains 1.2 percentage points below historical levels[1] - Production and employment indices showed improvements of 2.4 and 0.6 respectively, aligning with seasonal trends[1] - The inventory index slightly rebounded to 48.9, but the overall trend indicates a continued phase of destocking[1] Group 3: Sector Performance - Service sector PMI rose for the third consecutive month, reaching 52.4, reflecting stable consumer demand for services[1] - Construction PMI surged by 2.7 to 56.2, indicating optimistic expectations for infrastructure investment driven by government policies[1] - The overall industrial outlook remains cautious, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand rather than supply constraints[1]
PMI点评（24.3）：PMI为何突升？能否持续？
Huajin Securities·2024-03-30 16:00