NONGFU SPRING(09633) 国海证券·2024-03-30 16:00Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved robust growth in 2023, with revenue reaching RMB 42.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.079 billion, up 42.2% year-on-year [1] - The tea beverage segment showed remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 83.3% year-on-year to RMB 12.659 billion, driven by the rapid development of the sugar-free tea industry and the company's brand cultivation over the past decade [2] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 59.55%, up 2.10 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs such as packaging materials and PET [3] - The net profit margin reached 28.31%, an increase of 2.75 percentage points year-on-year, marking a record high since the company's listing [3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue from packaged water increased by 10.9% year-on-year to RMB 20.262 billion, supported by marketing efforts highlighting premium water sources [2] - Functional beverages generated revenue of RMB 4.902 billion, up 27.7% year-on-year, benefiting from increased consumer awareness post-pandemic [2] - Juice beverages contributed RMB 3.533 billion in revenue, a 22.7% year-on-year increase, driven by product innovation and expanded offerings [2] - The company's operating income for the second half of 2023 was RMB 22.205 billion, up 33.44% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.304 billion, a 62.19% increase [1] Market Data and Valuation - The current stock price is HKD 42.25, with a 52-week range of HKD 37.95 to HKD 46.75 [3] - The company's total market capitalization is HKD 475.163 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of HKD 212.715 billion [3] - The average daily trading volume is HKD 221.86 million, with a one-month turnover rate of 2.36% [3] - The company's P/E ratio for 2023 is 38.90x, expected to decrease to 31.02x in 2024, 27.35x in 2025, and 24.15x in 2026 [4] Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 51.032 billion in 2024, RMB 58.716 billion in 2025, and RMB 66.956 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 14% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 14.123 billion in 2024, RMB 16.019 billion in 2025, and RMB 18.138 billion in 2026, with growth rates of 17%, 13%, and 13% respectively [4] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.26 in 2024, RMB 1.42 in 2025, and RMB 1.61 in 2026 [4] Product Segments - Packaged water remains the core driver, with the company reinforcing its leadership position through marketing and product upgrades [2] - The tea beverage segment, particularly the "Oriental Leaf" brand, is expected to continue its rapid growth due to the expanding sugar-free tea market [2] - Functional beverages and juice products are also expected to benefit from industry growth and product innovation [2]