SIA(SH:600009) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 36.26 CNY [2] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 934 million CNY in 2023, turning from a loss in 2022, with a significant increase in both quarterly and annual performance [4] - The recovery of the civil aviation industry in 2023 has led to a substantial increase in passenger volume and flight operations, with the company benefiting from improved operational conditions and asset integration effects [5] - The forecast for 2024 indicates accelerated recovery in international routes, with expected net profits of 2.82 billion CNY and 4.06 billion CNY for 2024 and 2025 respectively, supported by favorable policies and resource integration [5][6] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 5,480 million CNY - 2023A: 11,047 million CNY - 2024E: 13,939 million CNY (growth rate of 102%) - 2025E: 15,761 million CNY (growth rate of 13%) - 2026E: 16,706 million CNY (growth rate of 6%) [2][6] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: -2,995 million CNY - 2023A: 934 million CNY - 2024E: 2,820 million CNY (growth rate of 202%) - 2025E: 4,062 million CNY (growth rate of 44%) - 2026E: 4,410 million CNY (growth rate of 9%) [2][6] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: -1.20 CNY - 2023A: 0.38 CNY - 2024E: 1.13 CNY - 2025E: 1.63 CNY - 2026E: 1.77 CNY [2][6] - Valuation Ratios: - P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 32.0, 22.2, and 20.5 respectively [2][6] Operational Highlights - In 2023, Pudong Airport's passenger throughput reached 54.48 million, recovering to 72% of 2019 levels, while Hongqiao Airport's throughput reached 42.49 million, recovering to 93% of 2019 levels [5] - The company generated 1.788 billion CNY in duty-free revenue in 2023, with expectations for future growth following new agreements [5]