Minsheng Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GAC Group (601238.SH) [1] Core Views - GAC Group's 2023 total revenue reached 129.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, while the gross margin was 7.5%, up by 0.7 percentage points [2] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 52.3% year-on-year to 3.57 billion yuan, with a significant drop in Q4 2023 net profit to -450 million yuan [2] - GAC's self-owned brand vehicles, particularly GAC Aion, showed strong sales growth, with GAC Aion's annual wholesale volume increasing by 77% to 480,000 units [2] - The company's internationalization strategy accelerated, achieving an export volume of 76,000 units, a 130% increase year-on-year, and establishing a presence in 41 countries and regions [2] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2024-2026, estimating revenues of 156.94 billion yuan, 183.33 billion yuan, and 201.67 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 6.50 billion yuan, 7.31 billion yuan, and 7.95 billion yuan [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, GAC's total revenue was 31.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.1% [2] - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was 8.2%, down by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year and 2.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The investment income for Q4 2023 was 1.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.7% year-on-year and 24.6% quarter-on-quarter [2] Sales Performance - GAC Toyota's annual wholesale volume was 950,000 units, down 5.5% year-on-year, while GAC Honda's volume decreased by 13.7% to 640,000 units [2] - GAC's self-owned brand sales are expected to transition from volume growth to profit growth in 2024, indicating a higher quality development cycle [2] International Strategy - GAC's international strategy has accelerated since 2023, with a focus on Southeast Asia for the GAC Aion brand [2] - The establishment of a global R&D network and market presence in five major regions is expected to provide new growth opportunities in 2024 [2]