盈利能力显著提升，资产负债率稳步下降

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][3]. Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a steady decline in the debt-to-asset ratio. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 225.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.65% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.717 billion yuan, an increase of 60.23% year-on-year [1][4][6]. - The increase in net profit is attributed to the decline in prices of raw materials such as petroleum coke and coal, which improved unit profitability. The unit net profit for electrolytic aluminum increased from 1,240 yuan/ton in 2022 to 1,379 yuan/ton in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1][6][9]. - The company has reduced low-margin trading businesses, leading to an increase in the profitability of the aluminum segment. The gross margin for Q4 2023 increased by 5 percentage points to 21% [1][6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 12.90%, an increase of 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 5.59%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio was 5.10%, up 0.70 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio at the end of 2023 was 53.30%, a decrease of 5.37 percentage points from the end of 2022, indicating a steady decline over the years [1][9]. - The production of alumina and primary aluminum remained stable in 2023, with alumina production at 21.66 million tons (down 1%) and primary aluminum production at 6.79 million tons (down 1%) [1][17]. Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 is as follows: revenue of 222.97 billion yuan in 2024 (down 0.94% year-on-year), 226.59 billion yuan in 2025 (up 1.63% year-on-year), and 231.51 billion yuan in 2026 (up 2.17% year-on-year). The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 8.5 billion yuan in 2024 (up 26.54% year-on-year), 10.22 billion yuan in 2025 (up 20.25% year-on-year), and 11.63 billion yuan in 2026 (up 13.75% year-on-year) [1][18].