23年业绩大幅减亏，静待盈利修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) [1][4][19] Core Views - In 2023, China Southern Airlines significantly reduced its losses, with operating revenue reaching 159.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -4.209 billion yuan [1][5] - The domestic supply and demand quickly recovered, while the international recovery was slower. Passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) recovered to 93.8%, 86.7%, and 91.9% of 2019 levels, respectively [1][7] - The company experienced a decrease in unit costs, which improved profitability. Operating costs were 147.58 billion yuan, up 39.4% year-on-year, but unit costs for fuel and non-fuel decreased significantly [1][12] - Investment losses from capital injection into Sichuan Airlines and foreign exchange losses impacted overall performance [1][16] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported an operating revenue of 159.93 billion yuan, a significant increase of 83.7% from the previous year, with a net profit of -4.209 billion yuan [2][5] - The fourth quarter saw an operating revenue of 40.44 billion yuan, up 139.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of -5.53 billion yuan [1][5] Passenger and Cargo Operations - Domestic RPK and ASK recovered to 106.4% and 113.3% of 2019 levels, respectively, while international RPK and ASK were at 43.2% and 45.2% [1][7] - Passenger revenue reached 139.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123%, while cargo revenue was 15.28 billion yuan, down 26.9% [1][7] Cost Structure - Operating costs were 147.58 billion yuan, with fuel costs at 52.05 billion yuan (up 59.3%) and non-fuel costs at 95.53 billion yuan (up 30.5%) [1][12] - Unit ASK fuel cost decreased by 22.5% to 0.165 yuan, and non-fuel cost decreased by 36.5% to 0.302 yuan [1][12] Investment and Foreign Exchange - The company injected 4.68 billion yuan into Sichuan Airlines, resulting in an investment loss of 2.34 billion yuan [1][16] - Foreign exchange losses amounted to 0.687 billion yuan due to currency depreciation [1][16] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 7.01 billion, 11.34 billion, and 14.53 billion yuan, respectively, with adjustments reflecting a decrease in growth expectations [1][19]