GEELY AUTO(00175) 海通证券·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Geely Automobile (0175 HK) [4] Core Views - Geely Automobile's brand structure is considered reasonable and clear, with the gradual implementation of the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy expected to drive continuous growth in overall revenue and net profit [1] - The company's 2023 operating performance showed significant improvement, with record-high revenue of RMB 179 2 billion, a 21% YoY increase, and a gross margin of 15 3%, up 1 2 percentage points YoY [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 reached RMB 5 308 billion, a 51% YoY increase compared to the adjusted net profit of RMB 3 511 billion in 2022 [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - 2023 total sales reached a record high of 1 687 million units, exceeding the sales target, with new energy vehicle sales hitting a record 487,000 units, a 48 3% YoY increase [5] - Export sales reached a record 274,000 units, a 38 3% YoY increase [5] - The company aims for 2024 total sales of 1 9 million units, a 13% YoY increase, with new energy vehicle sales expected to grow 66% YoY [5] - Revenue is forecasted to grow 32% YoY in 2024 to RMB 236 175 billion, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to reach RMB 7 631 billion, a 43 76% YoY increase [6][9] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0 76 in 2024, RMB 1 14 in 2025, and RMB 1 54 in 2026 [1][6] Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a 2024 PE multiple of 15-20x, corresponding to a reasonable value range of HKD 12 56-16 74 (based on an exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0 9080 RMB) [1] - The current P E ratio is 16 28x for 2023, expected to decrease to 12 18x in 2024 and 6 00x in 2026 [9] Industry Comparison - Among comparable companies, Great Wall Motor (601633) has a 2024E PE of 19 1x, while BYD and Changan Auto have 2024E PEs of 14 9x and 17 2x respectively [7] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is 17 1x for 2024 [7]