Monetary Policy Insights - The central banks of the US, Japan, and Europe can purchase government bonds in the secondary market to supply cost-free funds, while China's central bank lacks this tool due to a large pool of statutory reserve funds[4][21]. - If the central bank were to purchase government bonds directly, it could significantly increase the upper limit of monetary easing, indicating a commitment to continued liquidity support despite current constraints[4][42]. Economic Indicators - The current policy interest rates still have considerable room for reduction, suggesting that the monetary policy is not yet at a standstill[4][8]. - The stock and commodity markets may not sustain trading based on central bank bond purchases, but the bond market will likely remain stable, as the impact is primarily a matter of the slope of monetary easing[4][24]. Asset Performance - Gold prices continue to reach historical highs, with an increasing proportion of its pricing attributed to its safe-haven characteristics, indicating a positive outlook for future performance[4][13]. - The real estate sector is expected to see favorable policies soon, but changes in expectations will take time, warranting a cautious approach to related investments[4][13]. Market Data - The ChiNext Index stands at 1818.20, while the Shenzhen Component Index is at 9400.85, and the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3041.17, reflecting current market conditions[2][17][33]. - The current reserve requirement ratios for large and small deposit-taking financial institutions are critical indicators of liquidity in the banking system[4][7].
宏观与大类资产周报:QE,一级准备
Guoyuan Securities·2024-03-31 16:00