Group 1: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve has adopted a hawkish stance, indicating that interest rate cuts are not imminent, with a focus on inflation trends[2] - Recent core PCE data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[11] - The market's expectation for a rate cut on May 1 is only 4%, while the probability for a cut on June 12 is 61%[11] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - In March, major global stock markets saw positive performance, with the DAX, FTSE 100, and CAC40 rising by 4.6%, 4.2%, and 3.5% respectively[32] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, outperformed larger indices with a March increase of 3.39%[33] - The Japanese stock market is expected to face volatility due to fluctuations in the yen exchange rate[12] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[3][74][75] - The global economic outlook remains uncertain, with potential negative impacts if economic recovery falls short of expectations[60]
海外市场月报：警惕国际汇市的高波动
Tebon Securities·2024-03-31 16:00