农林牧渔行业简评：猪价淡季不淡，周期反转渐近

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6][12] Core Insights - The report indicates that the supply pressure in the pig industry is expected to gradually decrease in 2024, with pig prices likely to be better than in 2023, signaling an approaching cycle reversal [6][12] - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is optimistic regarding pig prices in the second half of the year, with an increase in restocking activities and rising prices for piglets [6][12] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has been decreasing since January 2023, with a projected decline of 7.9% by February 2024 compared to December 2022, reaching a new low in three years [6] - Feed sales data shows a mixed trend, with a slight increase in January followed by a decline in February, indicating ongoing supply adjustments [6] - The report notes that the cash flow pressure in the industry remains high, with many listed pig farming companies experiencing restructuring and asset sales due to continuous losses [6] Price Trends - As of March 29, 2023, the average price of live pigs was 15.09 CNY/kg, an 8% increase month-on-month, while the price of piglets rose by 29.7% to 565.95 CNY/head [6] - The report anticipates that the overall average price of live pigs in 2024 will likely be better than in 2023, particularly in the second half of the year [6] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the lowest point for pig prices has passed, and a cycle reversal is imminent, with a recommendation to focus on companies with cost advantages and stable operations, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][12]