Group 1 - The median return for all A-share industries in March 2024 was 1.30%, indicating a general slowdown in the rebound momentum. The top five performing industries were non-ferrous metals (12.73%), petroleum and petrochemicals (6.22%), automobiles (4.92%), electric equipment and new energy (4.08%), and national defense and military (4.01%). The bottom five performing industries were comprehensive finance (-9.14%), non-bank finance (-6.01%), coal (-3.97%), real estate (-3.42%), and pharmaceuticals (-2.16%) [9][14][42] - The recommended industry portfolio for March achieved an average monthly return of 2.65%, outperforming the equal-weighted industry portfolio's return of 1.64%, resulting in an excess return of 1.0 percentage point. Cumulatively, the recommended portfolio's return for the first three months of 2024 was 4.91%, exceeding the equal-weighted portfolio's return by 5.98 percentage points [9][42][42] Group 2 - In terms of industry performance tracking for March, significant upward adjustments in analyst earnings forecasts were noted for the national defense and military, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors. Conversely, notable downward adjustments were observed in petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, steel, basic chemicals, construction, building materials, electric equipment and new energy, automobiles, consumer services, banking, non-bank finance, real estate, transportation, electronics, and computers, with declines exceeding 2% [16][17][40] - The report highlights that industries with PE valuations below the 20th percentile historically include non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, construction, machinery, national defense and military, electric equipment and new energy, and communication. Similarly, industries with PB valuations below the 20th percentile include non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, construction, building materials, light industry manufacturing, machinery, national defense and military, retail, consumer services, textiles, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, banking, non-bank finance, real estate, transportation, electronics, communication, computers, and media [36][40][40] Group 3 - The report recommends industry allocations for April 2024, focusing on electric power and utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, retail, pharmaceuticals, textiles, national defense and military, and media [9][42][42] - The report indicates that the current ROE has significantly increased in industries such as non-ferrous metals (+0.5 percentage points), steel (+0.51 percentage points), consumer services (+0.59 percentage points), and media (+0.56 percentage points). However, industries like agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.46 percentage points) and retail (-0.61 percentage points) have seen significant declines [33][34][42]
策略月报：4月行业轮动配置建议
East Money Securities·2024-03-31 16:00