Zhujiang Brewery(SZ:002461)2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery, expecting its total return to exceed the relevant market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [10][12][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.38 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 620 million yuan, up only 4.2% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 830 million yuan, a slight increase of 1.2% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company was negative at -20 million yuan [12][13]. - The estimated revenue for 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 5.82 billion yuan, 6.29 billion yuan, and 6.74 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 730 million yuan, 770 million yuan, and 870 million yuan for the same years. The corresponding EPS is forecasted at 0.33 yuan, 0.35 yuan, and 0.39 yuan [12][13]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial indicators for 2023 include: - Revenue: 5,378 million yuan - Net profit: 620 million yuan - EPS: 0.28 yuan - Gross margin: 42.8% - Net profit margin: 11.6% [11][12]. - The projected financial indicators for 2024 include: - Revenue: 5,823 million yuan - Net profit: 730 million yuan - EPS: 0.33 yuan - Gross margin: 43.8% - Net profit margin: 12.5% [11][12]. Valuation Metrics - The average valuation of comparable companies in 2024 is estimated at a P/E ratio of 23x. Given the recent downward trend in the beer sector, the company is assigned a P/E of 27x for 2024, leading to a target price of 9 yuan [12][13].