CEA(600115) 国信证券·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH) [1][21] Core Insights - In 2023, China Eastern Airlines reported a narrowing loss with total revenue of 113.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 145.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.17 billion yuan [1][5] - The recovery in domestic passenger traffic and strong ticket prices significantly boosted revenue, with passenger transport volume and available seat kilometers (ASK) recovering to 88.7% and 90.6% of 2019 levels, respectively [1][5] - The company expects profitability to improve in 2024, despite a downward adjustment in revenue forecasts due to macroeconomic pressures and slow recovery in international routes [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022: Revenue of 46.11 billion yuan, net profit of -37.39 billion yuan - 2023: Revenue of 113.74 billion yuan, net profit of -8.17 billion yuan - 2024E: Revenue expected to be 137.66 billion yuan, net profit of 5.91 billion yuan [19] - Key Financial Ratios: - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was -0.37 yuan, expected to turn positive in 2024 with 0.26 yuan [19] - Return on equity (ROE) improved from -128.6% in 2022 to -20.1% in 2023, with a forecast of 12.9% in 2024 [19] Operational Metrics - The passenger load factor for 2023 was 74.4%, down 7.6 percentage points from 2019, while domestic routes showed a recovery with a load factor of 78.0% [1][5] - The company achieved a significant increase in passenger revenue, reaching 104.58 billion yuan in 2023, a 199% increase year-on-year [1][5] Cost and Margin Analysis - Operating costs for 2023 were 112.46 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year, with fuel costs rising by 84.9% [1][5] - The gross margin turned positive in 2023 due to improved operational efficiency, with unit fuel costs per ASK decreasing by 27.4% [1][5] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 5.91 billion yuan, 9.63 billion yuan, and 12.91 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook due to anticipated economic challenges [1][7][19]