CHALCO(601600) 民生证券·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with expected PE ratios of 14, 12, and 10 for 2024-2026 respectively [2][3] Core Views - The company's integrated industrial chain layout and potential for electrolytic aluminum asset integration are key future growth drivers [2] - Under the "China Special Valuation" system, the company's value is expected to be re-evaluated due to its strategic importance in the national economy [2] - The company's performance is expected to show significant elasticity with rising aluminum prices [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 225.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.65%, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 60.23% to 6.717 billion yuan [1][7] - The company's electrolytic aluminum production in 2023 was 6.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.31%, mainly due to production decline at its subsidiary Yunnan Aluminum [1] - The company's asset impairment losses significantly decreased to 755 million yuan in 2023, driving a substantial improvement in performance [14] Industry and Market Analysis - The company has a complete industrial chain layout from upstream (bauxite, alumina, prebaked anodes, coal, power) to midstream (electrolytic aluminum) and downstream [19] - The company controls approximately 2.3 billion tons of bauxite resources, with a domestic self-sufficiency rate of about 70% for bauxite and 100% for alumina [19] - As of the end of 2022, the company had an alumina production capacity of 22.26 million tons/year and an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 7.35 million tons/year [21][23] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 9.111 billion yuan, 10.907 billion yuan, and 12.288 billion yuan in 2024-2026 [2][29] - The acquisition of Yunnan Aluminum has significantly increased the company's green aluminum production capacity, with green electricity accounting for about 80% of Yunnan Aluminum's electricity consumption structure in 2023 [25][27] - The company has several ongoing projects, including the Baotou Aluminum Phase III project and the Guangxi Huasheng Phase II 2 million tons alumina project [24]