社会服务行业·周观点：清明&五一将近，旅游热有望提振消费板块

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [25]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming Qingming and May Day holidays are expected to boost the tourism economy, with domestic travel numbers recovering to 119.1% and 104.1% of 2019 levels for the 2023 May Day and National Day holidays respectively. For 2024, the New Year and Spring Festival travel numbers are projected to reach 109.4% and 119.0% of 2019 levels [14][15]. - Consumer sentiment and travel enthusiasm are anticipated to improve in 2024, benefiting the tourism economy's recovery. Data from Meituan shows a more than 250% week-on-week increase in travel bookings for the Qingming holiday [14]. - The gold market is experiencing upward pressure due to its "safe haven" and "anti-inflation" attributes, with gold prices rising significantly. The price of gold in the domestic market is around 673 RMB per gram, and companies in the gold jewelry sector are expected to benefit from inventory appreciation and increased consumer demand [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The social services sector index decreased by 2.76% this week, ranking 27th out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry performance [8][9]. - Sub-industry performance showed declines in various sectors, with education down by 8.43% and hotel and catering down by 5.42% [10]. Individual Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks included Shibai Testing (+15.10%) and Dalian Shengya (+15.07%), while the worst performers included Chuan Zhi Education (-12.01%) and Dongfang Fashion (-11.93%) [12]. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The upcoming holidays are expected to stimulate the tourism economy, with strong consumer travel intentions likely to drive growth in related sectors. Key companies to watch include Jiuhua Tourism, Jinjiang Hotels, and Haidilao [15]. - Investment Theme 2: The rising gold prices are expected to enhance the performance of gold jewelry companies, with a focus on brands like Lao Feng Xiang and China Gold [16].