机械设备行业点评报告：3月挖机内销预计同比转正，持续关注后期修复力度

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - The domestic excavator sales are expected to show positive year-on-year growth in March 2024, indicating a recovery in the market [2][3] - The demand for equipment updates is anticipated to rise starting in 2024 due to an 8-year replacement cycle and supportive government policies aimed at promoting large-scale equipment updates [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth, with a significant increase in fixed asset investment and infrastructure spending in early 2024 [3] - The decline in real estate development investment has narrowed compared to the previous year, which may positively impact the machinery sector [3] Summary by Sections Sales Forecast - CME estimates that excavator sales (including exports) will be around 25,000 units in March 2024, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 2.26%, with domestic sales expected to reach 14,800 units, reflecting a growth of 6.48% [2] Market Dynamics - The first quarter of 2024 is projected to see a total domestic excavator sales volume of 49,980 units, a year-on-year decline of about 13%, with domestic market sales at 26,058 units, down 9.61%, and export sales at 23,926 units, down 16.47% [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zoomlion, XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, LiuGong, Hengli Hydraulic, Hangcha Group, and Anhui Heli due to the anticipated recovery in excavator sales and improving downstream conditions [4]