Haitong Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 0.31% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 0.68% year-on-year for 2023. The growth in consumer and business loans is expected to benefit from future construction projects in Shanghai, with a stable dividend payout ratio [6][7] - The company has shown a significant increase in consumer loans, with an 86% growth compared to the end of 2022, and has improved its market share among 17 commercial banks by 1.54 percentage points [6][7] - The asset yield remains stable while the cost of deposits has marginally decreased, with the deposit cost rate dropping by 2 basis points to 2.33% in the first half of 2023 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2022 was 256,796 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 257,595 million yuan for 2024, indicating a year-on-year decline of 3.96% [8] - The net profit for 2022 was not specified, but projections for 2024 indicate a net profit of 92,102 million yuan, with a growth rate of 1.46% [8] - The average return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 9.68% in 2023 to 8.83% in 2026 [8][20] Valuation and Price Target - The estimated reasonable value of the company is between 6.50 yuan and 6.81 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 5.58-5.84 for 2024 [7][20] - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to benefit from infrastructure and technology investments in Shanghai, with an increase in market share for both deposits and loans [7] - The focus on technology finance has led to a 41.2% increase in the number of credit clients, with significant growth in loans to strategic emerging industries and specialized small and medium enterprises [7]