Investment Rating - Helens International Holdings (9869 HK) maintains an Outperform rating with a target price of HKD 4.5, based on a 25x 2024 PE valuation [4][10] Core Views - Helens is accelerating its platform transformation, with the HiBeer Partnership model entering a rapid expansion phase, targeting 400 new HiBeer Partnership bars in 2024 [3][10] - The company is shifting towards a lighter asset model, reducing direct-operated bars while expanding through partnerships, which is expected to improve profitability and scalability [3][4] - Helens has defined 2024 as a "product year," focusing on enhancing its product portfolio and differentiation barriers through continuous iteration of new products [3] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue was RMB 1.21 billion, down 22% YoY, with adjusted net profit of RMB 280 million and an adjusted net profit margin of 23.2% [3][10] - Gross margin improved by 6.3 percentage points to 70.2%, driven by higher contribution from self-owned beverages and reduced marketing activities [3] - Daily sales per store increased by 4% YoY to RMB 7.3k, with HiBeer Partnership bars achieving a daily sales per store of RMB 7.1k [3][10] Business Model and Expansion - The HiBeer Partnership model features lower investment thresholds (RMB 1 million per bar), smaller store sizes (200 sqm), and higher efficiency (RMB 34 per sqm daily sales) compared to direct-operated and franchise bars [3] - Helens plans to open 400 HiBeer Partnership bars in 2024, leveraging the model's scalability and profitability [3][10] - The company has shifted from a gross profit-sharing model to a supply chain markup (5%-6% on self-owned products) and monthly management fee structure to incentivize partners [3] Product and Channel Strategy - Self-owned products accounted for 78.3% of revenue, with beverage-like alcohol contributing 58.1% of self-owned product sales, up 9.5 percentage points YoY [3] - Shareable and bottled beverage-like alcohol accounted for approximately 40% and 20% of total revenue, respectively [3] - Franchise and HiBeer Partnership channels contributed 5.9% and 2.8% of revenue, respectively, showing growth potential [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 1.05 billion, RMB 1.49 billion, and RMB 1.95 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit of RMB 207 million, RMB 246 million, and RMB 330 million [4][10] - Adjusted net profit margins are expected to stabilize at around 16.5%-19.7% over the forecast period [4][6]
点评报告：持续推进平台化转型，嗨啤合伙人模式扩张提速