Sinotruk Jinan Truck (SZ:000951) Guolian Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.36 yuan based on a 16x PE for 2024 [14][26]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 42.07 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.08 billion yuan, up 405.5% year-on-year [13][25]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the recovery of the industry and structural opportunities, particularly in the gas vehicle segment and export sales [13][14]. - The company’s wholesale market share for heavy trucks increased to 25.7% in 2023, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the gas vehicle market and export expansion [12][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 28,822 in 2022, 42,070 in 2023, projected to reach 52,314 in 2024, 61,441 in 2025, and 70,657 in 2026 [3][26]. - Net profit (million yuan): 214 in 2022, 1,080 in 2023, projected to be 1,421 in 2024, 1,899 in 2025, and 2,355 in 2026 [3][26]. - EBITDA (million yuan): 814 in 2022, 2,000 in 2023, projected to be 3,732 in 2024, 4,614 in 2025, and 5,509 in 2026 [3][26]. - EPS (yuan/share): 0.18 in 2022, 0.92 in 2023, projected to be 1.21 in 2024, 1.62 in 2025, and 2.00 in 2026 [3][26]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a leading player in the heavy truck market, with expectations for continued growth driven by increased penetration of gas vehicles and expansion into international markets [14][25]. - The company’s retail sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 24,400 units in 2023, accounting for 23.5% of total sales, with a retail market share of 17.7% [25]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% for net profit over the next three years [14].