CAPOL(SZ:002949) Guotou Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.7 CNY for the next six months [7][22]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2023 was 1.507 billion CNY, a decrease of 17.46% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 43.82% to 161 million CNY [6][19]. - The gross profit margin improved to 32.22%, up by 3.01 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to business structure improvements [3][19]. - The company achieved a high dividend payout ratio of 97.21%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][6]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit margin of 12.56%, a significant increase of 4.64 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced credit impairment losses [3][19]. - The operating cash flow for 2023 was a net inflow of 287 million CNY, representing an 8.17% year-on-year increase [3][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.82 CNY, up 43.81% from the previous year [6][19]. Business Structure and Strategy - The company has actively reduced its low-margin EPC business, with its revenue share decreasing by 6.79 percentage points to 10.64%, while the design business revenue share increased to 74.15% [19]. - The company is focusing on expanding its public building business, with a 7.08% year-on-year increase in public building design revenue [19]. - The company has been involved in urban renewal projects since 2007 and has developed a competitive advantage in affordable housing and talent housing products [9]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.659 billion CNY, 1.846 billion CNY, and 1.995 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 11.2%, and 8.1% respectively [22]. - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 197 million CNY, 217 million CNY, and 233 million CNY, with growth rates of 22.3%, 10.0%, and 7.3% respectively [22].