大类资产每月观察

Economic Overview - The US February PCE inflation data met expectations, showing resilience despite a divergence from CPI, prompting the Fed to signal a potential rate cut in June due to financial risks[2] - Domestic policies post-two sessions aim to stabilize the economy, attracting foreign investment and enhancing capital market governance, which supports a recovery in Q2[2] Market Trends - The stock-bond risk premium recorded at 3.84%, rebounding by 0.01% from last month, indicating a high level of foreign investment attractiveness[5] - The average daily subway ridership in 28 major cities reached 79.27 million, up 6.9% year-on-year, reflecting sustained economic activity in the service sector[9] Asset Performance - Major asset performance over the past month: Gold led gains, while commodities generally declined, with fuel oil showing the strongest performance[12][13] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 7.2 basis points, indicating a steepening yield curve driven by expectations of monetary easing and low financing demand[17] Real Estate Insights - As of March 28, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 3.056 million square meters, showing a seasonal rebound but down 13.4% compared to the same week in 2019[76] - High-frequency sales in the real estate sector are improving, particularly in first-tier cities, following further policy easing[76] Commodity Analysis - Manufacturing capacity utilization rates show divergence, with a 0.83% decrease in steel mills but a significant 23.3% rebound in cement production, indicating mixed demand dynamics[41] - Commodity prices are expected to experience volatility, with agricultural products and non-ferrous metals anticipated to rebound after recent declines[51] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adjust positions by going long on risk assets (stocks) and short on safe-haven assets (government bonds) in anticipation of structural opportunities[11] - Caution is advised regarding potential adjustments in asset prices due to unexpected economic data, particularly in the US stock market and commodities with financial attributes[11]