Guotai Junan Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) with a target price of 35.60 RMB per share, down from the previous forecast of 41.86 RMB [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to decline by 27.1%, primarily due to reduced investment income from capital market fluctuations. The operating profit after tax (OPAT) is projected to decrease by 0.4%, aligning with expectations [3]. - The report highlights a significant growth in new business value (NBV) driven by both individual insurance and bank insurance channels, with a reported increase of 30.8% (pre-adjustment) and 19.1% (post-adjustment) for 2023 [3]. - The report notes that the company is focusing on shareholder returns while navigating the challenges posed by market volatility [3]. Financial Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 37,381 million RMB, which is expected to drop to 27,257 million RMB in 2023, followed by a recovery to 33,135 million RMB in 2024 [3][13]. - Total assets increased from 2,071,336 million RMB in 2022 to 2,343,962 million RMB in 2023, with a projected growth to 2,620,096 million RMB in 2024 [3][13]. - The report indicates a stable dividend of 1.02 RMB per share for 2023, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 27.6% [3]. Investment Structure - The investment structure shows a significant allocation to fixed-income assets, which accounted for 79.5% of total investments in 2023, while equity investments decreased to 3.4% [3][18]. - The net investment yield for 2023 is projected at 4.0%, reflecting a slight decline from previous years due to market conditions [3][18]. Business Performance - The report emphasizes the stable underwriting profitability in property insurance, with a combined ratio of 97.7% for 2023, indicating a slight increase from the previous year [3][19]. - The individual insurance channel's new business value increased by 8.8% in 2023, driven by strong demand for savings products [3][17]. Market Position - China Pacific Insurance is recognized as a leading comprehensive insurance group in China, focusing on customer demand and strategic transformation to enhance value growth across its insurance segments [1][9].