Huachuang Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Aviation (601111) with a target price of 8.87 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of 7.30 CNY [1][4]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion CNY, with a significant loss of 1.84 billion CNY in Q4. However, revenue for the year reached 141.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 166.7% [1][2]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in passenger transport volume, with a 44.4% year-on-year increase in January and February 2024, and a notable recovery in international routes [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.31 billion CNY, 12.27 billion CNY, and 15.51 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting substantial growth from the previous year [2][13]. Financial Data Summary - 2023 Financial Performance: - Total revenue: 141.1 billion CNY, up 166.7% year-on-year - Net loss: 1.05 billion CNY, improved from a loss of 38.62 billion CNY in 2022 - Q4 revenue: 35.62 billion CNY, up 229.6% year-on-year [1][2][8]. - Cost Structure: - Operating costs for 2023 were 134 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 61.8%, with fuel costs rising by 105.3% to 46.7 billion CNY [1][2][8]. - Profitability Metrics: - Passenger kilometer revenue for 2023 was 0.61 CNY, down 4.0% year-on-year but up 14.1% compared to 2019 [1][2][8]. - Future Projections: - Expected revenue for 2024: 173.5 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 23.0% [2][13]. - Projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.44 CNY, 0.74 CNY, and 0.93 CNY respectively [2][13]. Operational Data Summary - Capacity and Load Factor: - In 2023, Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 164.2% year-on-year, while Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 206.1% [1][2][8]. - The passenger load factor improved to 73.2%, up 10.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][2][8]. - Fleet Expansion: - The company plans to increase its fleet by 33, 24, and 55 aircraft in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a growth rate of 3.6%, 2.6%, and 5.7% [1][2][8].