Huachuang Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for China Eastern Airlines (600115) [1] Core Views - In 2023, the company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 8.17 billion yuan, with a loss of 5.56 billion yuan in Q4 2023. Despite the losses, revenue increased significantly by 146.7% year-on-year to 113.74 billion yuan [1][6] - The report highlights a strong recovery in passenger traffic, with a 44.4% year-on-year increase in passenger transport volume in January and February 2024, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming peak season [1] - The profit forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been adjusted to 5.3 billion yuan and 8.5 billion yuan respectively, with an introduction of a 2026 profit forecast of 12.3 billion yuan [1] Financial Data Summary - 2023 Financial Performance: - Total revenue: 113.74 billion yuan, up 146.7% year-on-year - Net loss: 8.17 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 37.39 billion yuan in 2022 - Q4 revenue: 28.2 billion yuan, up 169.8% year-on-year, with a net loss of 5.56 billion yuan [1][6] - Operational Metrics: - ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 154.6% year-on-year in 2023 - RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) increased by 197.5% year-on-year in 2023 - Passenger load factor improved to 74.4%, up 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [1][6] - Cost Structure: - Operating costs for 2023 were 112.5 billion yuan, up 50.8% year-on-year - Fuel costs were 41.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 84.9% year-on-year [1][6] - Profitability Forecast: - EPS (Earnings Per Share) for 2024 is projected at 0.24 yuan, with a PE (Price-to-Earnings) ratio of 15 times - The target price is set at 4.59 yuan, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of 3.64 yuan [1][2]