QINCHUAN(SZ:000837) Southwest Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [6][38]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic gear machine tool manufacturer, contributing to the localization of high-end five-axis machine tools. It is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% in revenue over the next three years [6][35]. - The company's 2023 annual report shows a decline in revenue and net profit, with a revenue of 3.761 billion yuan, down 8.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 52.26 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [7][29]. - The machine tool segment experienced a revenue decline of 17.83% to 1.781 billion yuan, while the parts segment grew by 7.28% to 1.392 billion yuan, with significant growth in main engine exports, which increased by 77% [17][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.761 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.29% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.26 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [7][29]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 17.7%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year, with machine tool gross margin at 16.72% and parts gross margin at 13.06% [8]. Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 132 million yuan, 196 million yuan, and 277 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a revenue CAGR of 17% [6][11]. - The revenue from the machine tool segment is expected to grow at rates of 25.92%, 21.41%, and 18.34% from 2024 to 2026, while the parts segment is projected to grow at rates of 16.39%, 13.96%, and 13.48% [35][30]. Market Position - The company holds over 60% market share in the gear grinding machine segment and is accelerating the production of high-end machine tools [35]. - The overall machine tool industry in China saw a revenue decline of 7.2% in 2023, reflecting weak downstream demand [17].