Tianfeng Securities·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 60.3 HKD, maintaining a rating of "Increase" for the next 6 months [1][4]. Core Views - The company's gas business is expected to recover in 2024, with strong growth anticipated in its energy and smart home segments [1][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 113.858 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a profit attributable to shareholders of 6.816 billion CNY, up 16.2% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Retail Gas Business - Retail gas volume decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to 25.14 billion cubic meters in 2023, impacted by a decline in industrial and commercial gas demand [3]. - The retail gas business revenue slightly increased by 0.9% to 60.61 billion CNY, while the gross profit from gas sales fell by 6.1% to 6.049 billion CNY [3]. - For 2024, the company expects retail gas volume to grow over 5% and gross profit to increase by over 10% due to the implementation of natural gas pricing policies [3]. Energy and Smart Home Business - The energy business continued to grow rapidly, with 86 energy projects completed in 2023, leading to a total energy sales volume of 34.7 billion kWh, a 56% increase year-on-year [4]. - The energy business generated revenue of 14.513 billion CNY, up 32.5%, with gross profit rising by 22.6% to 1.907 billion CNY [4]. - The smart home business achieved revenue of 3.702 billion CNY, an 18.9% increase, and gross profit of 2.517 billion CNY, up 21.1% [4]. Dividend and Profit Forecast - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.95 HKD per share for 2023, with the payout ratio increasing from 37% in 2022 to 40% [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate net profits of 6.98 billion CNY, 7.67 billion CNY, and 8.37 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 2.4%, 10%, and 9% respectively [4].