NCE(605111) 华金证券·2024-03-31 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][31]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 18.46% year-on-year in 2023, with total revenue of 1.477 billion yuan and a net profit of 323 million yuan, down 25.75% year-on-year [1][2]. - Despite short-term pressure on performance due to weakened demand and increased competition, the company is expected to see a recovery in 2024, with projected revenues of 1.881 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.4% [2][27]. - The company has a comprehensive product lineup with over 3,000 models covering voltage ranges from 12V to 1700V, and is positioned to replace imports in the mid-to-high-end product segments [2][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 372 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.05% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.67% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 2023 was 108 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.03% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 60.86% [1]. Product Line Outlook - The company has established four major product lines: IGBT, SGT-MOSFET, SJ-MOSFET, and Trench-MOSFET, with a focus on continuous innovation and new product launches [1][31]. - IGBT sales are expected to recover in 2024 due to a rebound in photovoltaic demand, with projected sales of 327 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23% [6][28]. - SGT-MOSFET sales are projected to grow significantly, reaching 710 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 30% [25][28]. - SJ-MOSFET and Trench-MOSFET are also expected to see growth, with projected revenues of 236 million yuan and 581 million yuan in 2024, respectively [7][26][28]. Future Projections - The company forecasts total revenues of 1.881 billion yuan in 2024, 2.340 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.823 billion yuan in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 27.4%, 24.4%, and 20.7% [2][27]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 33.7% by 2026 [27].