JHEC(SH:600273) Haitong Securities·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [21]. Core Views - The company is progressing with key projects such as the second phase of PVC and fatty alcohol production, with a total investment of 26 billion yuan [2]. - The company is actively developing hydrogen energy and photovoltaic businesses, with a focus on hydrogen storage equipment and partnerships with academic institutions [22]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company reported a revenue of 87.74 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 23.72% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.80 billion yuan, down 26.21% year-on-year [19][30]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 94.39 billion yuan, 107.83 billion yuan, and 119.35 billion yuan, respectively, with expected EPS of 0.90, 0.97, and 1.03 yuan [5][31]. - The gross margin is expected to decline from 20.0% in 2023 to 18.5% by 2026 [5][31]. Price Assumptions - Fatty alcohol prices are projected to be 9,600 yuan/ton from 2024 to 2026, while PVC prices are expected to average 5,333 yuan/ton during the same period [4]. Sales Volume Assumptions - The company anticipates fatty alcohol sales of 270,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 430,000 tons from 2024 to 2026, and PVC sales of 420,000 tons, 510,000 tons, and 600,000 tons during the same period [24].