Huafu Securities·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianqi Lithium Industries, with a target price of 50.20 CNY per share [4][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.5 billion CNY in 2023, a slight increase of 0.13% year-on-year, but a significant decline in net profit by 69.8% to 7.3 billion CNY [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue drop of 17.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 800 million CNY, marking a 148.7% decline from the previous quarter [3]. - The pricing mechanism for lithium concentrate has shifted from Q-1 to M-1, which is expected to enhance profitability starting January 1, 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company produced 1.523 million tons of lithium concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, while sales volume reached 845,000 tons, up 11.3% [3]. - The average selling price of lithium concentrate in 2023 was 4,586 USD per ton, reflecting a 58% increase year-on-year, while the average price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased by 46.7% and 42.8%, respectively [3]. - The company’s total assets amounted to 73.228 billion CNY in 2023, with a debt ratio of 25.94% [5][10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit is adjusted to 3.295 billion CNY for 2024, down from previous estimates due to declining lithium prices, with projections of 3.920 billion CNY for 2025 and 5.148 billion CNY for 2026 [3][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 2.01 CNY, with a projected increase to 2.39 CNY in 2025 and 3.14 CNY in 2026 [3][10].