3月PMI数据点评：外需边际回暖，高端制造景气度走高

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In March, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 53%, up by 1.6 percentage points[10] - The comprehensive PMI for March was 52.7%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.8 percentage points[10] - The production index increased by 2.4 percentage points to 52.2%, indicating a return to a prosperous zone[13] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders index rose by 4 percentage points to 53%, and new export orders increased by 5 percentage points to 51.3%[13] - The import index also saw a rise of 4 percentage points to 50.4%, marking the first time since March 2023 that it exceeded 50%[13] - Raw material prices increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.5%, while factory prices decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.4%[18] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-end manufacturing PMI surged to 53.9%, while equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6%[21] - The construction PMI rebounded to 56.2%, with the business activity expectation index increasing by 3.5 percentage points to 59.2%[26] - Service sector PMI remained strong at 53%, with the service industry new orders index showing a slight increase[31] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The report indicates a steady economic recovery, but some sectors are still in a destocking phase[28] - Risks include potential unexpected changes in overseas policies and continued weakness in consumer spending and housing[37] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may support overseas demand and inventory replenishment[28]