Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating for ConnoMed (2162 HK) with a slightly adjusted target price of HKD 58 [3] Core Views - ConnoMed's 2023 revenue met expectations at RMB 350 million, but the net loss of RMB 360 million was slightly higher than expected due to higher R&D and administrative expenses [3] - CM310, an IL-4Rα inhibitor, has a first-year sales target of RMB 500 million for 2025, with a long-term peak sales target of RMB 5 billion [3] - CMG901, a CLDN18 2 ADC, has entered Phase 3 trials for second-line gastric cancer, with promising efficacy data (ORR: 33%, n=89) and potential to become a first-in-class drug [3] - Key catalysts for 2024 include CM310's approval for adult atopic dermatitis, long-term efficacy data, and the submission of a new indication for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps [3] Financial Analysis - 2023 revenue was RMB 350 million, with a net loss of RMB 360 million [3] - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 70 million, with a net loss of RMB 803 million [6] - 2025E revenue is expected to surge to RMB 563 million, with a net loss of RMB 797 million [6] - 2026E revenue is forecasted at RMB 1,175 million, with a net loss of RMB 690 million [6] - Gross margins are expected to remain strong, with 2024E at 100%, 2025E at 82 5%, and 2026E at 82 8% [7] Commercialization and Pipeline - CM310 is expected to be approved by the end of 2024, with a commercial team of around 200 people planned [3] - CMG901 is advancing rapidly in Phase 3 trials, with potential milestone payments of USD 10 million from AstraZeneca [3] - Other pipeline highlights include CM326 (TSLP) for rhinitis, CM313 (CD38) for SLE, and CM336 (BCMAxCD3) for multiple myeloma [3] Valuation and Forecast - The target price is adjusted to HKD 58 based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9 5% and a perpetual growth rate of 3% [3] - 2025E and 2026E revenues are revised upward by 16 6% and 8 4%, respectively, due to updated sales guidance [3] - The report highlights a potential upside of 80% based on the current price of HKD 32 3 [3]
2023年净亏损略高于预期；CM310首年销售指引为5亿元