Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [13]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 136.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit of 11.5 billion yuan, up 32% year-on-year. The total dividend declared for the year is 0.63 HKD per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.53% [2][3]. - The report highlights the growth in both production and sales of electrolytic aluminum, with production reaching 6.265 million tons (up 3.7%) and sales at 5.748 million tons (up 5.0%). The gross profit margin for aluminum alloy products improved to 17.4%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is advancing the integration of the aluminum industry with clean energy, increasing the proportion of hydropower resources and accelerating the construction of photovoltaic projects [2][3]. - The report predicts a gradual increase in aluminum prices due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with expected prices of 21,000, 23,000, and 25,000 yuan per ton for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 158.71 billion yuan in 2024, 179.34 billion yuan in 2025, and 196.625 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 17%, 13%, and 10% respectively [1][4]. - Net profit is expected to reach 18.953 billion yuan in 2024, 21.727 billion yuan in 2025, and 25.156 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 65%, 15%, and 16% [1][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.00 yuan in 2024, 2.29 yuan in 2025, and 2.65 yuan in 2026 [1][4]. Industry Insights - The report discusses the significant changes in the supply and demand for electrolytic aluminum, emphasizing the increasing importance of renewable energy sources in the production process [3][4]. - It notes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is characterized by low inventory and high capacity utilization, with future supply heavily reliant on new overseas capacities [3][4]. - The report anticipates a structural increase in aluminum prices, with the industry's "resource-like" attributes being re-evaluated as the market dynamics evolve [3][4].
电解铝产销与盈利双增，稳定高分红彰显投资价值