整体业绩平稳，分红率明显提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway Construction (601186.SH) [3][4][23] Core Views - The overall performance of the company is stable, with a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio. In 2023, the company achieved an operating income of 1,137.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.2% to 26.1 billion yuan [1][6] - The fourth quarter saw a rebound in new orders, with a sufficient backlog of orders, although new contracts in investment operations significantly decreased [1][12] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.50 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 4.753 billion yuan, with an average dividend payout ratio of 18.2% for 2023, up 3.9 percentage points from 2022 [2][23] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported an operating income of 1,137.99 billion yuan, with a quarterly breakdown showing Q4 revenue at 331.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. However, Q4 net profit fell by 15.6% to 6.68 billion yuan due to increased impairment losses [1][6] - The company’s gross profit margin improved slightly to 10.4%, while the net profit margin was 2.84%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [2][18] Order and Contract Status - The total new contracts signed in 2023 amounted to 32,938.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with a backlog of 66,898.3 billion yuan, up 5.1% [1][12] - The breakdown of new contracts by business segment shows engineering contracting at 20,270 billion yuan (+8.8%), while investment operations saw a significant decline of 24.1% [12][18] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 28.9 billion yuan, 30.8 billion yuan, and 33.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 6.47%, 6.56%, and 5.7% [2][23] - The reasonable valuation of the company is estimated to be between 10.1 and 11.0 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 17.9% to 28.8% from the current share price [4][23]