Huachuang Securities·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (600026) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.35 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 130.0%, with a non-recurring net profit of 4.13 billion yuan, up 197.3% year-on-year [1] - The cash dividend payout ratio for 2023 is approximately 49.8%, reflecting strong cash flow and shareholder returns [1] - The report highlights a positive outlook on the oil transportation market, driven by geopolitical tensions and a robust demand for oil transportation [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: In 2023, total revenue reached 22.09 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4% year-on-year [2] - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.35 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 130.0% [2] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS for 2023 was 0.70 yuan, with projections of 1.39 yuan, 1.56 yuan, and 1.74 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - Profit Margins: The gross profit margin for 2023 was 29.9%, an increase of 11.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - Demand: The report notes a 6.2% year-on-year increase in oil transportation demand, driven by geopolitical conflicts and record-high crude oil imports in China [1] - Supply: The global tanker fleet saw a low growth rate, with only 141 new tankers delivered in 2023, a decrease of 45% year-on-year [1] - Freight Rates: The average VLCC-TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) rate for 2023 was approximately $43,200 per day, reflecting an 80.9% increase year-on-year [1] Investment Forecast - Profit Projections: The report slightly adjusts the profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 6.64 billion yuan and 7.45 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 8.31 billion yuan [1] - Valuation: The target price is set at 21.1 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of 16.73 yuan [1]