SIA(600009) 华创证券·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shanghai Airport (600009) with a target price of 43.8 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of 36.65 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant recovery in the company's financial performance, with a total revenue of 11.047 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 101.6%. The net profit reached 934 million CNY, recovering from a loss of 2.991 billion CNY in 2022 [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the long-term value of the hub airport, particularly in the context of the ongoing recovery of international travel and the strategic partnership with China Duty Free Group to enhance sales [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - 2023 Financial Results: - Total revenue: 11.047 billion CNY, up 101.6% year-on-year - Net profit: 934 million CNY, compared to a loss of 2.991 billion CNY in 2022 - Non-recurring profit: 8.3 billion CNY, recovering from a loss of 3.08 billion CNY in 2022 [1][5]. - Quarterly Breakdown: - Q4 2023 revenue: 3.126 billion CNY, up 131.4% year-on-year - Q4 2023 net profit: 440 million CNY, with quarterly non-recurring profits of 3.7 billion CNY [1][5]. - Investment Income: - Total investment income for 2023: 660 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 274.4% [1][5]. Business Segment Performance - Aviation Business: - Aviation revenue for 2023: 4.376 billion CNY, up 140.2% year-on-year [1]. - Non-Aviation Business: - Non-aviation revenue for 2023: 6.67 billion CNY, up 82.34% year-on-year, with notable growth in commercial catering (2.43 billion CNY, up 333.97%) and logistics services (1.48 billion CNY, up 8.5%) [1][5]. Operational Data - Pudong Airport: - Total takeoffs and landings in 2023 increased by 112.2% year-on-year, with passenger throughput up 284.2% year-on-year [1][5]. - Hongqiao Airport: - Total takeoffs and landings increased by 78.5% year-on-year, with passenger throughput up 141.03% year-on-year [1][5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 3.29 billion CNY and 4.36 billion CNY, respectively, and introduces a 2026 forecast of 4.86 billion CNY. The corresponding EPS for these years are projected at 1.32, 1.75, and 1.95 CNY, with PE ratios of 28, 21, and 19 [1][5].