Southwest Securities·2024-04-01 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shandong Gold (600547) is "Hold" [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in its 2023 annual report, achieving a revenue of 59.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.33 billion yuan, up 86.6% year-on-year [2] - The increase in both price and volume contributed to the company's performance, with the average gold price in London at 1,942 USD/ounce, a 7.8% increase year-on-year, and the average spot gold price in China at 450 yuan/gram, up 14.7% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively increasing its reserves and production capacity through resource integration and acquisitions, with significant resources identified in the Xiling Village gold mine, which has a gold resource of 592 tons and an average grade of 4.02 grams/ton [2] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive due to changing monetary policies, increasing economic pressures, and rising global risks, which are expected to drive gold prices higher [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a net profit of 980 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 111.4% [2] - The company's gold production reached 41.8 tons in 2023, an 8.0% increase year-on-year, with improvements in production capacity from various mines [2] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 3.86 billion yuan, 5.39 billion yuan, and 6.53 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 34, 24, and 20 [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from self-produced gold is projected to grow from 17.87 billion yuan in 2023 to 28.09 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 31.5% [9] - Revenue from purchased gold is expected to increase from 12.71 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.37 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 11.3% [9] - The overall revenue is forecasted to grow from 59.28 billion yuan in 2023 to 68.59 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 15.7% [9] Valuation Metrics - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 56.67 in 2023 to 34.15 in 2024, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [10] - The net asset return (ROE) is expected to rise from 5.43% in 2023 to 10.09% in 2024, reflecting enhanced profitability [10]