Soochow Securities·2024-04-02 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - In 2023, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 75.87%, which met market expectations [2][7] - The company's revenue for 2023 was 32.972 billion yuan, down 21.16% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.947 billion yuan, also down 75.87% year-on-year [2][7] - The lithium salt production and sales slightly exceeded expectations, with a forecasted sales increase of over 15% in 2024 [2][13] - The company is enhancing its self-supply rate of lithium resources, with projections for 2024 showing a self-supply ratio of around 50% [3][14] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 30.2 billion, 40.0 billion, and 48.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24x, 18x, and 15x [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 32.972 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.16% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.947 billion yuan, down 75.87% year-on-year [2][7] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 13.87%, a decline of 35.6 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s Q4 2023 results showed a revenue of 7.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.7%, and a net loss of 1.063 billion yuan [2][7] Production and Sales - In 2023, the company produced 104,000 tons of lithium salt, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and sold 102,000 tons, an increase of 4.6% [2][13] - The company expects total lithium salt sales to reach 120,000 to 150,000 tons in 2024, with a significant contribution from South American salt lakes [2][13] Resource Development - The company is focused on increasing its self-supply rate of lithium resources, with an estimated self-supply ratio of 40% in 2023 and projected to reach 50% in 2024 [3][14] - Key projects include the Marion project, which is expected to contribute approximately 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024 [3][14] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report revises the profit forecast for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 30.2 billion, 40.0 billion, and 48.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 39%, 32%, and 20% respectively [3][28] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 24x, 18x, and 15x [3][28]