盈利能力改善，重视股东回报

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, indicating an expected total return performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 12 months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 258.4 billion for 2023, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, with express delivery revenue increasing by 9.2% to RMB 115.5 billion, accounting for 45% of total revenue [5]. - The net profit for 2023 grew by 33.4% to RMB 8.2 billion, improving the net profit margin from 2.3% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023 [5]. - The company is focusing on lean management and global market expansion, with a significant improvement in the net profit margin of the express and large parcel segment [5]. - The asset-liability ratio decreased from 54.7% at the end of 2022 to 53.4% at the end of 2023, indicating a stable asset structure [5]. - The company announced a dividend of RMB 0.6 per share for 2023, a 140% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio rising to 35% [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY 2024, FY 2025, and FY 2026 are RMB 286.8 billion, RMB 314.9 billion, and RMB 344.2 billion, respectively [4][6]. - Expected net profit for FY 2024, FY 2025, and FY 2026 is RMB 9.3 billion, RMB 11.0 billion, and RMB 12.5 billion, respectively [4][6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for FY 2024, FY 2025, and FY 2026 are RMB 1.91, RMB 2.28, and RMB 2.58, respectively [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 19 times for FY 2024, with a projected decline to 14.2 times by FY 2026 [4][6]. - The company’s return on average equity (ROAE) is expected to improve from 9.2% in 2023 to 11.4% by 2026 [4][6]. - The net dividend yield is projected to increase from 1.6% in 2023 to 2.5% by 2026 [4][6].