Vipshop(US:VIPS)2024-04-02 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to $19, reflecting a potential upside of 9% from the current price of $17.48 [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's sales performance in March is expected to be weaker than anticipated due to weather impacts on seasonal demand for apparel and a high base from the previous year. The first quarter GMV is projected to achieve single-digit growth [2]. - The report anticipates that the company's revenue for Q1 will be adjusted to RMB 27.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.7%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 2.25 billion, with a net profit margin improvement of 0.6 percentage points to 8.1% [2][3]. - For the years 2024 and 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted to RMB 116.9 billion and RMB 122.8 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 9.7 billion and RMB 10.6 billion [2][3]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue: - 2024E: RMB 116.9 billion (down 0.6% from previous forecast) - 2025E: RMB 122.8 billion (down 0.5% from previous forecast) [3] - Gross Profit: - 2024E: RMB 26.8 billion (down 1.1% from previous forecast) - 2025E: RMB 28.6 billion (down 0.5% from previous forecast) [3] - Net Profit: - 2024E: RMB 8.2 billion (down 1.8% from previous forecast) - 2025E: RMB 9.0 billion (down 0.5% from previous forecast) [3] - Adjusted Net Profit: - 2024E: RMB 9.7 billion (down 1.6% from previous forecast) - 2025E: RMB 10.6 billion (down 0.4% from previous forecast) [3]