Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) [3][5] Core Views - Jinxin Fertility achieved robust growth in 2023 with revenue of RMB 2 789 billion (+18 0% YoY) and net profit of RMB 347 million (+194 2% YoY) Adjusted net profit reached RMB 472 million (+72 0% YoY) in line with expectations [2] - The company's core Assisted Reproductive Services (ARS) revenue grew 26 7% YoY to RMB 1 336 billion with success rate improving 0 9 percentage points to 57 5% [3] - Domestic and overseas operations showed steady growth with 30 000 oocyte retrieval cycles completed in 2023 (+16 2% YoY) [3] - The company expanded its Southeast Asia market presence through a strategic partnership with Indonesia's largest fertility group Morula [3] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 were revised downward due to overseas business recovery and expense factors with 2024-2026 net profit estimates at RMB 398/462/542 million respectively [3] Business Performance - Revenue breakdown by segment in 2023 [3] - Assisted Reproductive Services (ARS) RMB 1 336 billion (+26 7% YoY) - Management services RMB 566 million (+12 5% YoY) - Auxiliary medical services RMB 209 million (+38 0% YoY) - Obstetrics and pediatrics services RMB 470 million (stable) - Regional performance in 2023 [3] - Chengdu & Greater Bay Area RMB 2 172 billion (+11 9% YoY) 22 000 cycles (+6% YoY) - Yunnan & Wuhan RMB 179 million (+35 8% YoY) 4 261 cycles (+42 7% YoY) - US & Laos RMB 570 million (+23 4% YoY) 3 847 cycles (+11 7% YoY) Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts [4] - 2024E RMB 3 260 billion (+16 88% YoY) - 2025E RMB 3 823 billion (+17 29% YoY) - 2026E RMB 4 541 billion (+18 77% YoY) - Net profit forecasts [4] - 2024E RMB 398 million (+15 41% YoY) - 2025E RMB 462 million (+16 06% YoY) - 2026E RMB 542 million (+17 39% YoY) - EPS forecasts [4] - 2024E RMB 0 14 - 2025E RMB 0 17 - 2026E RMB 0 20 - Valuation multiples [4] - 2024E PE 15x - 2025E PE 13x - 2026E PE 11x Market Data - Current share price HKD 2 44 [5] - Total shares outstanding 2 758 billion [6] - Market capitalization HKD 6 729 billion [6] - 52-week price range HKD 2 05-5 80 [6] - 3-month turnover rate 60 8% [6]
2023年报点评：23年业绩符合预期，24年有望迎来复苏