Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is experiencing a recovery in transaction volumes, particularly in key cities, with policies being optimized to support the market [5][6] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the sales of new and second-hand homes in major cities, with specific mention of Shenzhen's cancellation of the "7090 policy" [5][6] - The overall market performance shows that the real estate sector has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, with a year-to-date decline of 9.52% [3][4] Market Performance - During the week of March 25-29, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, while the real estate sector dropped by 1.74%, underperforming the indices by 1.52 and 1.53 percentage points respectively [3] - Year-to-date, the real estate sector has underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 11.75 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 12.62 percentage points [3] Data Tracking - In the week of March 25-29, 2024, the cumulative year-on-year decline in land transactions across 100 major cities was 22.01%, with first-tier cities showing a 33.53% increase in land area sold [3][19] - The total sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 331 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 43% [4][27] Industry Dynamics - In Q1 2024, Shenzhen recorded a 13.9% increase in second-hand home transactions compared to Q1 2023, indicating a notable market recovery [5] - The report notes the abolition of restrictive policies in Beijing, which may further stimulate market activity [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on developers with quality land reserves in core urban areas and those likely to benefit from urban village renovations, such as Binjiang Group and China Resources Land [5]
房地产行业周报：重点城市新房二手成交环比改善，深圳取消“7090”
Tebon Securities·2024-04-02 16:00