YTCO(SH:600066) Guolian Securities·2024-04-02 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.04 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.82 billion yuan, up 139.4% year-on-year [2]. - The bus industry saw a continuous recovery in domestic demand, with export sales reaching a historical high, contributing significantly to the company's performance [2]. - The company achieved a total sales volume of 36,500 units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, with a market share of 36.1% in the medium and large bus segment, up 7.9 percentage points from 2022 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 8.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, but a net profit of 770 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 22.1% [3]. - The gross profit margin in Q4 was 31.9%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by high-margin export models [3]. - The company expects revenues of 32.99 billion yuan, 37.97 billion yuan, and 43.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at 2.82 billion yuan, 3.54 billion yuan, and 4.03 billion yuan [4][5]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic bus industry, with significant growth potential in overseas markets due to its technological advancements and supply chain advantages [4]. - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% for earnings per share (EPS) over the next three years [4]. - The company’s ability to maintain high dividends is supported by stable cash flow from its growing overseas business [4].