Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals-A with a target price of RMB 22.37, down from the previous target of RMB 23.63, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of RMB 17.62 [1][6][14]. Core Insights - The company experienced steady revenue growth in 2023, achieving revenue of RMB 263 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%. However, the net profit of RMB 3.768 billion fell short of expectations, declining by 33% year-on-year [1][2]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment showed strong performance with revenue of RMB 233.76 billion, up 14% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment saw a slight decline in revenue [1][2]. - The innovative drug pipeline is entering a harvest phase, with several new drugs in various stages of clinical trials and applications [2][14]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of RMB 3.768 billion, down 33% from the previous year, with a corresponding EPS of RMB 1.02, a decrease of 35% [1][8]. - The operating cash flow for 2023 was RMB 5.232 billion, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [1][8]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit of 11% and 19%, respectively, from 2023 to 2026 [1][2]. Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical distribution segment generated revenue of RMB 233.76 billion, with a gross margin of 6.3%, down 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment reported revenue of RMB 26.26 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 58.5% [2][9]. - The retail segment achieved revenue of RMB 9.11 billion, up 10% year-on-year, but with a declining gross margin of 12.0% [9]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Due to lower-than-expected performance in 2023, the report has revised down the earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with EPS estimates adjusted to RMB 1.56 and RMB 1.66, representing decreases of 18% and 19% respectively [3][11][13].
2023年营收稳健增长；创新药迎来收获期