CAPCHEM(SZ:300037) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-04-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 22.53% year-on-year in 2023, amounting to 7.484 billion yuan. Operating profit decreased by 42.14% to 1.194 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 42.50% to 1.011 billion yuan [2][5]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to see growth in lithium battery chemical shipments in 2024, driven by the increasing demand from the new energy vehicle sector [2][3][4]. - The organic fluorine chemical segment has shown continuous growth, with a revenue increase of 21.45% in 2023, reaching 1.425 billion yuan, and is projected to maintain double-digit growth in 2024 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 7.484 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.53% compared to the previous year. The net profit was 1.011 billion yuan, down 42.50% year-on-year [2][6]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 28.94%, a decline of 3.10 percentage points from the previous year. The fourth quarter gross margin was 26.09%, down 2.18 percentage points from the third quarter [5][6]. Product Segments - Lithium Battery Chemicals: The company has a production capacity of 269,691 tons with an 81.29% utilization rate. The revenue from this segment was 5.053 billion yuan in 2023, down 31.74% year-on-year [2][5]. - Organic Fluorine Chemicals: This segment achieved a revenue of 1.425 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 21.45%. The company expects continued growth in this area due to high market demand and technological advancements [4][5]. - Capacitor Chemicals: Revenue in this segment was 629 million yuan in 2023, a decline of 9.77%. However, recovery is anticipated in 2024 as new products are developed [4][5]. Market Outlook - The demand for lithium battery electrolytes is projected to grow, with the industry expected to benefit from the increasing sales of new energy vehicles, which reached 9.448 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 37.48% [3][4]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major clients, including a contract worth 924 million USD with Ultium Cells, which is expected to enhance revenue stability [2][3]. Valuation - The report forecasts diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.65 yuan for 2024 and 2.17 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21.04 and 16.02 based on the closing price of 34.71 yuan on April 3, 2024 [5][6].