交运行业高股息系列（二）：高速公路：防御性和成长性兼具，稳健分红提升确定性

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the high dividend sector, particularly within the highway segment, suggesting a stable return expectation with a projected dividend yield of around 5% in the medium to long term [2][3]. Core Insights - The highway sector has shown resilience, outperforming the broader market since 2021, with significant excess returns compared to the CSI 300 index, highlighting its defensive attributes in a weak market [5]. - The profitability of the highway industry is primarily driven by traffic volume changes, with regional economic development significantly impacting toll revenue [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the highway sector, supported by increasing traffic volumes and ongoing infrastructure investments [12][14]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - Since 2021, the highway sector has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index, with excess returns increasing annually [5]. - As of April 1, 2024, the SW-highway index has shown a year-to-date increase of 1.97% [5]. Section 2: Profitability Drivers - Highway revenue is primarily influenced by traffic volume, with toll rates set by local governments [7]. - The average annual toll revenue for operational highways reached CNY 403.08 billion in 2021, with Guangdong province contributing the highest share [9]. Section 3: Growth Drivers - China's highway construction remains robust, with a total length of 177,300 kilometers as of the end of 2022, and plans for further expansion during the 14th Five-Year Plan [12]. - Traffic volume is expected to grow, driven by the increasing number of private vehicles, which accounted for 73.16% of total highway traffic in 2022 [14]. Section 4: Key Companies Overview - Ninghu Expressway: Positioned in the Yangtze River Delta, it has a strong traffic performance with a daily flow of 109,600 vehicles as of 2023, reflecting a 37.79% increase year-on-year [19]. - China Merchants Highway: A comprehensive highway investment operator with a total operating mileage of 14,745 kilometers, it has shown stable profitability and a rising dividend payout ratio [26][32]. - Wuhu Expressway: The only highway-listed company in Anhui, it operates approximately 609 kilometers of toll roads and is expected to benefit from regional economic developments [35].