保险行业2023年报回顾与展望：负债端高歌猛进，精算假设调整压实EV

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry, citing strong liability-side growth and improved actuarial assumptions [1] Core Views - The insurance industry saw a 27% YoY decline in net profit attributable to parent companies in 2023, primarily due to new accounting standards and capital market volatility [1] - Life insurance new business value (NBV) experienced significant growth, with improved reliability of embedded value (EV) due to actuarial adjustments [1] - Property insurance premiums grew steadily, but combined ratios increased across major insurers [1] - Investment returns declined overall, with insurers increasing allocations to bond assets [1] Profitability and Dividends - Listed insurers' combined net profit attributable to parent companies fell 27.2% YoY in 2023, with Q4 showing a sharper decline of 69.9% [8][9] - Operating profits at major insurers also declined, with Ping An and CPIC reporting -19.7% and -0.4% YoY changes respectively [18] - Despite profit declines, dividend payout ratios generally increased, with Ping An's A-share dividend yield reaching 6.0% [24][28] Life Insurance Sector - New premium income grew rapidly, with Q2 being the peak growth period [29] - Agent workforce shrank by 14% industry-wide, but productivity improved significantly [34] - EV remained largely flat YoY, while NBV saw positive growth across major insurers [41][47] - NBV margins showed signs of bottoming out, with some insurers experiencing rebounds [57] Property Insurance Sector - Total property insurance premiums grew 5.7% YoY, with auto insurance maintaining steady growth [69] - Combined ratios increased across major insurers, reaching 97.6%, 100.7%, and 97.7% for PICC, Ping An, and CPIC respectively [73] - Non-auto insurance growth slowed significantly in H2 2023, particularly for Ping An [69] Investment Performance - Insurers' investment assets grew 11% YoY, with Xinhua showing the fastest growth at 15% [1] - Bond allocations increased by an average of 5.3 percentage points, while stock and fund allocations remained stable [1] - Net and total investment yields declined by 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively, though comprehensive investment yields improved by 0.6 percentage points [1] Actuarial Adjustments - Major insurers lowered long-term investment return assumptions from 5% to 4.5% [39] - Risk discount rates were reduced by 1-2 percentage points across different insurers [39] - These adjustments improved the reliability of EV and NBV assessments [39]