Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) [4][7] Core Views - The bank's revenue and net profit growth in 2023 met expectations, with strong credit growth and a relatively resilient net interest margin [3] - The target price is adjusted to 6.10 CNY, corresponding to a 0.77x PB for 2024, down from the previous forecast of 6.52 CNY [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, PSBC's revenue and net profit grew by 2.3% and 1.2%, respectively, with a notable increase in non-interest income in Q4 [3] - The bank's loan growth rate was 13.0% in 2023, with corporate loans growing by 20.4% year-on-year [3] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for 2023 was 2.01%, narrowing by 19 basis points year-on-year, but showing stronger resilience compared to peers [3] - The cost of deposits decreased by 8 basis points year-on-year, contributing to the stable net interest margin [3] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains strong, although the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased by 2 basis points compared to Q3, primarily due to rising NPLs in the real estate sector and personal loans [3] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 16.3 percentage points compared to Q3, indicating a reasonable provision strategy [3] Earnings Forecast - The net profit growth forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.13%, 2.89%, and 5.80%, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 0.82, 0.84, and 0.89 CNY [3]