策略周观点2024年第13期：A股上游行业涨幅靠前

Market Indicators - During the week of April 1 to April 3, major A-share indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.53%, the ChiNext Index by 1.22%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.92%, and the CSI 300 by 0.86%, while the STAR 50 Index fell by 0.78% [6][26]. - The weekly performance of Shenwan's first-level industries was also mixed, with non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and oil & petrochemicals leading the gains, increasing by 6.81%, 4.09%, and 3.42% respectively. In contrast, the computer and communication sectors saw declines of 2.54% and 2.22% respectively [29][26]. Trading Volume - The average daily trading volume for the two markets during the week was 9661.84 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 2.69% compared to the previous week [11][26]. - The electronics sector was the most active, with a trading volume of 3314.40 billion yuan, followed by power equipment and computers with 2410.06 billion yuan and 2192.31 billion yuan respectively [12][26]. Liquidity Indicators - As of April 3, the A-share market saw a capital inflow of 3023.76 billion yuan, while the net amount of large orders (BBD) was -167.07 billion yuan [16][26]. - For northbound capital, the total buy transaction amounted to 1226.89 billion yuan, with sell transactions at 1265.83 billion yuan, resulting in a net outflow of 38.94 billion yuan [40][26]. Valuation Levels - As of April 3, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index was at a historical percentile of 53.46%, indicating it is above the historical average since 2010 [52][26]. - In terms of industry valuation, only the basic chemicals, construction materials, automotive, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel sectors exceeded the historical 50th percentile based on current dynamic PE ratios [54][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strategic emerging industries and future sectors as key areas for industrial layout, particularly in light of policies promoting large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods [58][26]. - Companies with stable operations, significant performance improvements, and high cash dividend ratios should be monitored during the annual report disclosure period [58][26].