HAERS(SZ:002615) Guotou Securities·2024-04-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 10.20 CNY per share based on a 15x PE for 2024 [1][40]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of thermal cups and has established a complete industrial chain, focusing on both OEM and OBM strategies. The recovery of large customer orders has put the company's fundamentals back on a growth track [1]. - The growth potential for 2024 is promising, with expectations of significant revenue recovery in the first quarter due to strong overseas demand for thermal cups [2][4]. - The company's foreign trade revenue in 2023 was 1.77 billion CNY, down 5.2% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory adjustments by major customer Yeti. However, orders have returned to normal levels, and revenue is expected to grow significantly in 2024 [17]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 2.41 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The net profit was 220 million CNY, reflecting an 8.6% increase year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 700 million CNY, up 32.4% year-on-year [37]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 31.2%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the depreciation of the RMB and the growth of the company's own brand online channels [39]. - Revenue projections for 2024 estimate a significant increase to 3.19 billion CNY, with net profit expected to reach 317.2 million CNY [22]. Market Performance - The stock price has shown fluctuations, with a notable performance of -24% to +26% over various periods in 2023 and early 2024 [6]. - The company is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 15% or more in the next six months, indicating strong market confidence [11]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its own brand and expanding its product channels, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth and improve profit margins in the coming years [1][4]. - The diversification of foreign trade customer structure is anticipated to align with the overall demand for thermal cups in international markets, further supporting revenue growth [4].