Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Hongqiao (01378) is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1] Core Views - The company has significantly exceeded expectations in operational performance, with a notable increase in profit levels [1] - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 133.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7% [1] - The increase in net profit is attributed to the decline in raw material costs for electrolytic aluminum and contributions from associated companies [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 47.2% [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - In H2 2023, the company recorded revenue of 67.89 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.3%, and a net profit of 9.00 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 266.5% [1] - The gross profit for the aluminum alloy segment reached 16.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The average selling price, operating cost, and gross profit per ton for aluminum alloy were 16,465 yuan, 13,602 yuan, and 2,863 yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -6.4%, -10.6%, and +20.8% [1] - The company benefited from lower costs of prebaked anodes and coal, leading to significant improvements in gross margins [1] Cash Flow and Dividends - The company achieved a net operating cash flow of 22.40 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 193.9% [1] - The proposed dividend for 2023 is 0.29 HKD per share, with a total dividend payout of approximately 5.4 billion yuan [1] Future Outlook - For 2024, the company expects a favorable supply-demand situation for electrolytic aluminum, with net profit estimates revised upwards to 15.16 billion yuan and 15.55 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively [1] - The company is projected to have a low price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 and 4.9 times for 2024 and 2025, respectively, compared to industry peers [1]
经营业绩大超预期，利润水平显著提升